© 2008, 7” x 10” softcover, 344 pages
Product Code B179
By Lev Virine and Michael Trumper
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Project management is the art of making
the right decisions. To be effective as a project manager, you must know
how to make rational choices in project management, what processes can
help you to improve these choices, and what tools are available to help
you through the decision-making process.
Project Decisions: The Art and Science
is an entertaining and easy-to-read guide to a structured project
decision analysis process. This valuable text presents the basics of
cognitive psychology and quantitative analysis methods to help project
managers make better decisions. Examples that portray different
projects, real-life stories, and popular culture will help readers
acquire the essential knowledge and skills required for effective
Readers will be able to:
- Understand psychological pitfalls related to project management
- Establish a creative business environment in their organization
- Identify project risks and uncertainties
- Develop estimates of project time and cost based on an understanding of human psychology
- Perform basic quantitative and qualitative risk and decision analysis
- Use event chain methodology in managing projects
- Communicate the results of decision analysis to decision-makers
- Review project decisions and perform adaptive project management
- Establish a project decision analysis process in their organization
PLUS — Test your own judgment through a quiz that examines your intuition!
Part 1 — Introduction to Project Decision Analysis · Project Decision Analysis: What Is It? · “Gut Feel” vs. Decision Analysis: Introduction to the Psychology of Project Decision-Making · Understanding the Decision Analysis Process · What Is Rational Choice? A Brief Introduction to Decision Theory · Creativity in Project Management · Group Judgment and Decisions · Are You Allowed to Make a Decision? Or the “Frustrated Developer’s Syndrome”
Part 2 — Decision-Framing · Identifying Problems and Assessing Situations · Defining Project Objectives · Generating Alternatives and Identifying Risks
Part 3 — Modeling the Situation · The Psychology and Politics of Estimating · Project Valuation Models · Estimating Probabilities
Part 4 — Quantitative Analysis · Choosing What Is Most Important: Sensitivity Analysis and Correlations · Decision Trees and the Value of New Information · What Is Project Risk? or PERT and Monte Carlo · “A Series of Unfortunate Events,” or Event Chain Methodology · The Art of Decision Analysis Reporting · Making a Choice with Multiple Objectives
Part 5 — Implementation, Monitoring, and Reviews · Adaptive Project Management · Did You Make the Right Choice? Reviewing Project Decisions · Does Decision Analysis Provide a Solution?
About the Authors
Lev Virine has
more than 20 years of experience as a structural engineer, software
developer, and project manager. In the past 10 years he has been
involved in a number of major projects performed by Fortune 500
companies and government agencies to establish effective decision
analysis and risk management processes as well as to conduct risk
analyses of complex projects. Lev is the author of more than 25
scientific papers and patents. He received his doctoral degree in
engineering and computer science from Moscow State University.
has worked in the fields of technical communications, marketing, and
software development for the past 16 years. Over the past eight years,
he has been involved in projects involving economic valuation and risk
and project lifecycle modeling. Michael has authored several papers and
articles on project risk management. He holds a bachelor’s degree from
the University of Victoria and is currently a master’s candidate at the
University of Liverpool’s laureate program.